5 Reasons to Buy Now in San Francisco

With all the doom and gloom headlines selling newspapers, there are some often overlooked facts that make this a good time to buy.

1.  Low interest rates; the rates dropped overnight to 5.5% for a 30 year fixed.

2.  There are more properties on the market than there have been in the last few years for buyers to choose from; it’s a buyers market, which is perfect for being a buyer.

3.   Sellers and developers have adjusted to the new market climate and are willing to make concessions.

4.   San Francisco rents are still rising.

5.  San Francisco still has a housing shortage; and we have a good jobs economy — you will be poised to cash in on the next market cycle.

November Bay Area Home Sales

 San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin see positive appreciation in year over year Median home price.

All Homes	Number Sold Nov-06	Number Sold Nov-07	Percent Change	Median November 2006	Median November 2007	Percent Change
Alameda	1,560	985	-36.9%	$581,000	$565,000	-2.8%
Contra Costa	1,627	879	-46.0%	$567,500	$528,500	-6.9%
Marin	285	206	-27.7%	$847,500	$871,000	2.8%
Napa	125	81	-35.2%	$599,000	$562,000	-6.2%
Santa Clara	2,028	1,317	-35.1%	$673,000	$678,000	0.7%
San Francisco	568	479	-15.7%	$760,000	$814,750	7.2%
San Mateo	678	504	-25.7%	$749,000	$780,000	4.1%
Solano	629	313	-50.2%	$441,000	$375,550	-14.8%
Sonoma	542	363	-33.0%	$535,000	$470,000	-12.1%
Bay Area	8,042	5,127	-36.2%	$620,000	$629,000	1.5%

Source: DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com

Top 10 online resources to research San Francisco neighborhoods

How do buyers determine what neighborhood is the right one for them in San Francisco?

Price

It’s where most buyers start, “How much can I afford?” and I find Trulia’s “heat maps” function works well to dig down into and compare neighborhood price trends.  Here’s a snapshot of our market.

Location, location, location –

“How long will my commute be?” is the neighborhood near freeway on-ramps, BART stations, CalTrain, ferries and Muni? Is there a nearby dog park? What is the micro climate usually like?

What are the neighbors like?

I’m a demographic geek from my days in marketing and I love this census mashup by zip code at the time of the 2000 census. (I found 2 zip codes in LA that had over 25% unemployment at the time of the 2000 census!)

Is it a safe neighborhood?

These up to date crime maps are awesome, giving you the crime incidents that have occurred up to the last 90 days by the type of crime and shows the date and time.

Shopping? Eating? This site is pretty easily navigated to give you the basics — nothing fancy — of each shopping district around the City and beyond; it’s a crib sheet for shopaholics. For those hitting the boutiques your guide is Style Maven.

What’s the neighborhood going to look like in the future?

Is the Marina for you?

I’m experimenting with a new video posting tool … so bear with me as I upload a few clips about our wonderful neighborhoods.

from www.turnhere.com posted with vodpod

Hayes Valley Video Tour

This captures the flavor of this neighborhood perfectly!

from www.youtube.com posted with vodpod

Get the demographics on any zip code

Get the skinny on your zip code demographics at zip skinny

Year over year prices show SF up, Sonoma prices down

Here’s a year over year analysis of the bay area market  courtesy of Pat Kitano from Transparent Real Estate. Thanks, Pat!

Here in the city you’ll find that neighborhoods can be quite variable.  Noe Valley is still hot, as is NOPA.  Parkside has slowed a bit from last year.

Back from my affordable housing stint …

I’ve taken a couple of months off to work on AB2100, an interesting affordable housing project here in California.  As a local tax payer, it’s got me a bit jaded on how the system works, and who profits.

The spirit of the bill makes sense; it’s all about transitioning people from aged institutional settings to community based housing.  Specifically, the state owned Agnews Developmental Center, which will be sold to Cisco — should their option to purchase be executed, will be surplused and closed as of June 8, 2008 by the state.  Sweet.

Although this will fetch a pretty penny, the state will not have another opportunity to own any land on the peninsula in the near, nor far, future.  And while this is in an environment of continuing liquidity, although tightening supply of equity willing to finance debt most likely beyond the next few quarters.

But the decision has been made.  There are probably less than 10 people at the facility who should not be moved — but they will be moved.  What really erks me is that the budget to acquire properties has been expended with a dozen homes still needing to be acquired for the project.  CalHFA will get $200,000 in reserves with the close of each property and the master developer, Hallmark, will get $60,000+ of overhead at the close of each property and then an additional profit of  $60,000 at stabalization — whatever work they complete.

The homes purchased last year have not had construction begun to convert for the intended occupants.  I apologize for this rant … it’s a reasonable project with a good-heartedness behind it … but the implementation has been mishandled and monies are being mishandled as well due to inexperience on the part of the master developer.  I’m no whistle blower, it’s just my 2 cents. (Glad to be back!)

Real Estate is not a one night stand, a Tale of Two Queens

It was an exciting sight to see the Queen Mary II in San Francisco for an overnight on her maiden visit here. Champagne flowed, although I didn’t see the Mayor sipping, taxis slowed along the Embarcadero, and then she quietly slipped out during the night ducking under the Golden Gate on her way to her next port of call. It was all a little like a one night stand.

Last night I was at the bash hosted by SocketSite and Redfin and overheard Adam Koval, Editor in Chief of SocketSite, talking about what the local market influence will be with so many new condos coming on the market in the Rincon Hill area and beyond. I’ve had the same question, how will we absorb this record new units coming online, in the back of my mind for the last year and it’s what has gotten me thinking of this one night stand analogy and how it relates to real estate values, flipping and asset churning.

Looking at the basics; lots of jobs infux in the immediate area, and continued low rates, I don’t see red flags waving. Of course, the other basic of real estate is to buy and hold. Primary resident purchases should be for a minimum of 3-5 years for new construction — ideally you bought into the first phase release — so that you’ll weather a 6-18 month hiccup in a local market. As an investor looking for value, your timeline will be part of your overall strategy; that other queen, the Queen of England, owns much of London and leases it out on 99 year terms — no one would accuse the Queen of one night stand thinking.

Swapping, the old fashioned real estate transaction

Until fairly recently in our history, and the advent of lending and mortgages, most real estate transactions were exchanges and they are still the norm for many ranches and farms. With a shift in our market, an exchange may speed the right outcome for your situation.

Imagine a younger couple in a South Beach condo with children on the way wanting more space and perhaps a single family home, and then imagine an older couple with a single family home wanting to downsize and escape from their home maintenance duties and be in an area, like South Beach, with the convenience of amenities and entertainment within walking distance. Here’s an ideal situation where the real estate desires of the parties would indicate a possible swap.

But exchanges are not limited to San Francisco, maybe you’re ready to swap out your rental property for a place in Tahoe, or Hawaii.

I’m putting together a site for those interested in learning more about swapping and to post what they have and what they want to exchange. If you’re interested in learning more about exchanges feel free to send me an email at melanie@condocontessa.com.